Tuesday, September 6, 2011

If You Could Take One Player...

Before the season started this year, I wrote something about the National League taking over as the dominant league in baseball.






I will first address the issue of interleague play which for all intents and purposes would be the best way to measure one league against the other. The American League again had a winning record (131-121) but it was the lowest winning percentage since 2004. Although interleague play is a good measuring stick it doesn't tell the entire story because the AL is filled with full-time designated hitters while the NL is generally forced to have a pinch hitter or back up position player used as the DH when playing at an American League park.


When the MLB All-Star Game was played in July and the National League won for the second year in a row it got me thinking about the best young players in baseball by position. The question that has been asked for years from one baseball fan to another is "If you were starting a team and could pick one player, who would it be?" I decided to expand upon that idea and pick one player at each position from any team. My answers to the question are listed below.


Catcher: Brian McCann (Runner-up Alex Avila)






Alex Avila is having a great season and leads all catchers in WAR (wins above replacement) but McCann missed significant time and has been a top player at the position for several years now. Victor Martinez technically qualifies as a catcher and has a great bat but he doesn't possess the defense to be a catcher you would want to build your team around. Unfortunately for the Minnesota Twins, it looks like the 2009 season was an aberration for Joe Mauer as he's no longer really in the conversation.


First Base: Albert Pujols (Runner-up Miguel Cabrera)






Normally a guy above 30 years old is automatically disqualified for this kind of hypothetical exercise but Albert Pujols is not your average first baseman. He's only 31 years old and has already amassed the following gaudy per season stats: .328/.421/.618, 40.8 HR, 123 RBI, 8.27 WAR. To put it into perspective, two weeks ago he hit two home runs which gave him 30+ HRs for all 11 seasons of his career and allowed him to pass recent Hall of Fame inductee Andre Dawson on the all-time home run leader board. Consideration was also given to reigning NL MVP Joey Votto who is quietly putting together another great season, Adrian Gonzalez who has shown what he can do outside of Petco Park this season and the other top defender at first Mark Teixeira. This position is so loaded that I hadn't even mentioned Prince Fielder who is having another great season (in an odd numbered year) and primed for a huge free agent payday.


Second Base: Dustin Pedroia (Runner-up Robinson Cano)






Fans of the Yankees and Red Sox can make arguments about Sabathia over Lester and Gonzalez over Teixeira but the toughest choice to argue is between Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia. Both players are 28 years old with nearly identical batting average and runs scored this year but that's where the similarities stop. Even though Cano has more power as is widely regarded as the top hitting second baseman in baseball, Pedroia has a far better eye at the plate as he draws more walks while striking out less. Pedroia is also the far better defender at his position which ended up making me change my pick from Cano. Kinsler, Zobrist, Weeks and Phillips are also in the conversation but consistency and injury risk keep them off the top of my list.


Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki (Runner-up Jose Reyes)






This was the easiest pick and really it's not even up for debate. When the best offensive player at his position is arguably the best defender at his position, then your have a consensus pick. Jose Reyes is a distant second because of his injury concerns and Asdrubal Cabrera probably makes the third spot on my list. Although Cabrera makes some spectacular highlight reel plays, his defensive metrics are actually quite poor. Hanley Ramirez would have challenged Tulo a couple years ago but now he's only a footnote.


Third Base: Evan Longoria (Runner-up Jose Bautista)






I know what you're thinking: this is really fucking boring. Actually, I hope you're thinking, I'd take Bautista over Longoria and Bautista is more of a right fielder than a third baseman (he's played 25 games at the hot corner and 84 in right field this season). You'd be right on both accounts but if I was making a dream team I'd start with Longoria as my third baseman because of his age and tools then go with Bautista as my runner up because of position scarcity. Ryan Zimmerman has to be put into consideration and might have been my pick at the beginning of the season coming off back to back years with 7.0+ WAR.


Right field: Justin Upton (Runner-up Mike Stanton)






Both of these guys are young players with above average defense and unreal power. Justin Upton is the more senior of the two at 23 years of age and is carrying the Diamondbacks on his broad shoulders this season putting himself firmly into the National League MVP conversation. With an improved eye at the plate (career low 17.7 K%), Upton has 20 games left this season to shatter benchmarks he set in the 2009 season.


Center field: Matt Kemp (Runner-up Andrew McCutchen)






This was the toughest decision for me and you could really flip a coin between Kemp and McCutchen at this point in their careers. However, to me it appears Kemp is having a remarkable season with no protection in the line-up and finally living up to the five-tool potential that so many had said he possessed. Not that McCutchen is short on tools, in fact, his defense is far superior to Kemp but I don't see a 40/40 season in the future for McCutchen. Having career seasons both Jacoby Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson deserve a mention for center field. However, I'm not sure if the power is here to stay for Ellsbury. He has lowered his ground ball rate while increasing his line drive percentage but the HR/FB rate of 15.9% doesn't seem sustainable. It's easy to write off Granderson's power numbers as a product of Yankee Stadium and the short porch in right field but his splits show that he's been equally productive.


Left field: Ryan Braun (Runner-up Matt Holliday)






To say that Ryan Braun is a below average defensive outfielder is an understatement. Quite frankly, he's a bit of a liability with his glove but it doesn't matter. Since his debut with the Brewers in 2007 he's done nothing but rake. His strikeout rate has gone down each season including this year but his power numbers have remained in tact. Matt Holliday is the runner up in this position and Carlos Gonzalez (the centerpiece of the trade that sent Holliday to Oakland) also makes the list with Josh Hamilton. Carlos Gonzalez has some of the most eye popping home/road splits you'll ever see which keeps him out of the top two spots.


Starting pitching: National League






I won't go into too much detail about building a starting rotation but suffice to say that National League somewhat of a stranglehold on pitching superiority. Of the 15 pitchers in baseball with a FIP of 3.00 or below, nine of them are members of the senior circuit. If you look around the league at playoff contending teams, you'll notice that no team outside of the Angels has a rotation with more than two top tier starting pitchers. Compare that with the National League which has multiple teams with three of more dominant starters; Phillies, Giants, Braves and Brewers.


There you have it. Six of the eight positions on the field are populated by players from the National League and it's not really even close right now when comparing starting pitching between the two leagues.